Going out on a limb... the iPhone X won't be nearly as constrained as predicted!
long post incoming, think it's worth it.
it's been taken universal truth iphone x see shortages no apple product has before. macrumors has written no fewer 9 articles predicted scarcity, forums alight people assuming impossible obtain, , every analyst around, podcasters ming-chi kuo, expecting shortages until next year.
in effort interpret tea leaves of supply chains, , panic on low yields of truedepth camera system (which, let's not forget, same analysts didn't think exist few months ago when still rambling on in-display touch id), there many obvious positive signs have been missed:
the press release
press release treasure trove of hidden information when remember every word of laboured over, , apple foretells of product shortages using press releases.
remember apple pencil , smart keyboard, faced 4-5 week backlog immediately? well, apple foretold:
remember airpods, faced 6 week delays immediately? again, apple foretold:
and finally, remember iphone 7:
now, studious observers screaming last warning issued after pre-orders began - point yet reached iphone x - still, year different due long gap between announcement , availability, compared 2 week gap last year. there has been plenty of time - , plenty of incentive - apple warn customers, investors, , retailers officially supply particularly bad year, hasn't happened.
the roll-out
press release tells devices available , when. sooner rolls out worldwide, better supply is. obvious, because in ideal world apple love new iphone available in every shop in every corner of earth on day one: means more sold.
here's history on iphone roll-outs:
so iphone x? it's going constrained, must few major markets, right?
- iphone 6 available in 10 countries , regions on day one.
- iphone 6s available in 12 countries , regions on day one.
- iphone 7 available in 29 countries , regions on day one.
- iphone 8 available in 29 countries , regions on day one.
no. available in 57 countries , regions on day one. 57! that's totally unprecedented. , on meant constrained apple product ever? doesn't make sense.
the cost
thing expensive. end of point.
time
apple has given long time between announcement , pre-order , availability when consider rate @ apple can ramp production. new iphones come in supply-demand balance in less time apple has given year.
a fixed availability date
remember iphone 7 plus in jet black? that availability minefield. think agreed not single 1 delivered on september 16, 2016 - i.e. release day. apple still claim september 16 was release date because other colours did deliver on date.
same doesn't apply iphone x because some number of them must available november 3, otherwise couldn't launch date.
many people comparing iphone x jet black plus... cannot bad was.
delay then?
if theory correct, , supply won't disastrous, why waiting until november before these things ship?
think it's largely due software face id.
today's ios beta added more features face id announced @ start, e.g. attention detection, , embarrassing face id incident craig (yes, worked intended, lock-out experience needs work , better ui!), , lack of live face id demos press me signs isn't @ 100% yet software side.
to clear... i'm not saying won't sell out. of course will. slip 3-5 weeks on pre-order day lots of other iphones have. think 1) ordering in first few minutes 1 on launch day, , 2) wanting 1 christmas won't disappointed.
end of rant. i'm interested in thoughts.
please, dear god, not bring rays of positivity mr forums!!!
real though, find positive outlook refreshing, , frankly, needed!
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